Now that the 2012 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event is in full swing, one of the fun things to start eyeballing is the WSOP Player of the Year (POY) points race. While the players are aiming for the $8.5 million prize at the end of the Main Event, they do take a lot of pride in earning that POY title. Doesn’t hurt that it also means they won some money during the WSOP, of course. It might be a bit early to start a POY analysis, but let’s have a look-see, anyway.
Going into this year’s Main Event, the top ten in the POY points standings looks like this:
1. Phil Ivey – 568.70
2. John Monnette – 524.25
3. Phil Hellmuth – 500.70
4. Antonio Esfandiari – 488.10
5. Michael Mizrachi – 486.20
6. Gregory Merson – 481.13
7. David (ODB) Baker – 433.38
8. Andrew Frankenberger – 406.66
9. Andy Bloch – 405.30
10. Vanessa Selbst – 388.17
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to focus on the Main Event, even though we know the final table will take after the 2012 WSOP Europe. WSOP Europe can obviously change things, but it’s just easier for now to see how the entire Main Event affects the standings and look at WSOP Europe on its own.
Players earned points in the tournaments leading up to the Main Event based on where they finished, the size of the field, the buy-in, and tournament type. Put simply, placing high in large, expensive tournaments is the way to go. The only tournaments that did not count were the Ladies Championship, the Seniors Championship, and the Casino Employees Event, as these were not open events. Fortunately, the Main Event doesn’t use any multipliers or calculations; there is just a straight points scale, with 500 going to the winner. Interestingly, everybody in the tournament will earn points, even if they do not cash.
Now that the three starting flights of the Main Event have been completed, we know that of that top ten, John Monnette, Phil Hellmuth, David Baker, and Andy Bloch cannot jump to the top of the Player of the Year standings based simply on their pre-WSOP Europe performance because they have already been eliminated from the Main Event (correct me if I’m wrong – I’ve been combing the player lists).
There are currently 4,344 players remaining. Anyone who is eliminated in the bottom half of the field, or 3,300th place or below, will earn 25 points. If the present points leader, Phil Ivey, earns just the minimum (and with only 11,525 chips, he very well might), he will finish with 593.7 points. Now, it might appear at first glance that it would be easy for someone to catch Ivey if he goes out early, but it’s actually quite the opposite.
Those 593.7 points put him more than 100 ahead of anyone else still in the field (we’re not counting everyone else’s automatic 25 points because it wouldn’t do them any good, anyway). The person who finishes 9th at the Main Event final table will earn 100 points. That means that Antonio Esfandiari, Michael Mizrachi, and Gregory Merson will all have to finish at least 8th (120 points) to garner enough non-WSOP Europe POY points to pass Ivey, and that’s only if Ivey busts out in the bottom half of the field. Andy Frankenberger would need the 190 points from a 5th place finish to pass Ivey, while Vanessa Selbst would need the 220 points from 4th place.
If Ivey is able to make it into the top half of the field, but not reach the top 20 percent, he will earn 50 points, making it even less likely that anyone will overtake him without any points from WSOP Europe. Technically, he could still be caught even if he finishes as high as 2nd, but in that case, Esfandiari, Mizrachi, or Merson would have to win the whole thing, an extremely improbable scenario.
Of course, if Ivey were to bust out in the bottom 50 percent and more than one of the other top players (and to be clear, there are others with a shot – we’re just focusing on the top ten right now) makes a final table run, things get more complicated, but we’ll cross that bridge if we get to it.
Ivey has earned his spot at the top on the strength of seven cashes, including a tremendous five final tables. While he has not won a bracelet this year, he has finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th, and won a total of $576,052.
Again, there is still the 2012 WSOP Europe to take into account in September, so things could get a bit jumbled before the November WSOP Main Event final table. It would still take a serious run or two by somebody plus an Ivey shutout to see a change at the top, so the bottom line is this: Phil Ivey is a lock to go into WSOP Europe as the Player of the Year leader and will be the heavy favorite to leave Cannes with the title.
