One thing that you’ll notice about the National Football League is that point spreads normally do not get REALLY large. Usually, when you look at any line, it is going to be under a touchdown, if not under a field goal. The reason for this is that there is rarely a difference of more than a touchdown between two professional football teams.
Even when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the creamsicle of the league, they didn’t get put into double digits as a dog often. These players have a great deal of pride in their game, even if they are losing, so they’re not going out there with the intention to get their brains beat in. While you may see something along the lines of last week’s Buffalo beatdown of Miami (48-20 final) during the NFL Week Four slate, you can be sure that the Dolphins did NOT want it to be that way.
That’s what makes betting the double-digit spread games, even here for the NFL Week Five schedule, so difficult to handicap. For this week, the ‘Fins are a double-digit favorite over the hapless New York Giants, coming into South Florida limping along with a 1-3 record. As of press time, Miami (3-1) was a -12.5 favorite against the G-Men, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Gints try to keep it close through their running game. I don’t like it enough to BET it, mind you, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it.
There is another game like this (Lions -9.5 over the Panthers) so, if you can, you might want to stay away from it. While it might look like an easy win, it can be anything but – just ask the Commanders (-6) against the Bears on Thursday night!
We’ve got some picks for you this week that are a bit more comfortable. As always, all advice is offered for entertainment purposes only, but be ensured that a significant amount of thought has gone into each selection (home team in ALL CAPS).
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) v. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Don’t buy it that the Vikings are fixed because of their first victory of the season against the Carolina Panthers last week. Don’t buy that Vikes QB Kirk Cousins isn’t going to resort to being a turnover machine against the tough Chiefs D, and I don’t buy that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and his wide receiver corps are going to continue to underachieve as they have in the early going. Yes, there is the chance that this could be a push game, especially without the hook on a field goal, but I don’t believe that the Chiefs are going to have many problems in beating down the Vikings on their home turf.
PICK: Chiefs (-3)
New Orleans Saints v. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1)
There has been some big movement in this game on the NFL Week Five slate, with the Patriots coming down from three points to only one as of press time. This is because of the devastating injury to LB Matthew Judon, a lower bicep tendon tear that could remove him from the lineup for the remainder of the year. Add in the fact that it looks like QB Matt Jones is completely lost behind the center and you really must begin to wonder, “What happened to Dark Hoodie?” The Belichick magic isn’t working as well as it has in years past.
I am expecting the Saints to keep this one close and maybe even be able to eke out the win outright for the NFL Week Five surprise – although I would feel more confident if I knew that QB Derek Carr was going to be starting rather than QB Jameis Winston.
PICK: Saints +1
New York Jets v. Denver Broncos (O/U 43.5)
This is the game that will be played in Hell’s Sports Bar on this NFL Week Five Sunday afternoon. Denver is one of the middling teams in offensive rankings, only putting up about 25 points per game. The Jets are even worse, only mustering 15 points per game. I don’t see either team exactly lighting it up this Sunday, meaning that there will be plenty of defense and field goals being hit. Thus, I’m grabbing the UNDER on this one…
PICK: UNDER 43.5
