There are times, especially in the world of gambling, when you really wonder if you know what you’re doing. You move all in with your middle pair of sevens against an A-J off suit…and the opponent rivers a Broadway straight. In poker, and in gambling too, you can often make the correct move, the ones that your analysis has led you to believe is the proper stance to take, and you can still lose…a position that this writer found himself in for the NFL Week Seven matchups. There are no guarantees in the world of wagering, and brutal weekends can take their toll.
That was the spot that your humble scribe found himself in after last week’s debacle. EVERY. SINGLE. GAME…went in the loss column. A supposedly strong New Orleans Saints team played like the Aints against the Houston Texans, LOSING a game to the lowly Bulls from Houston. The Saints couldn’t even make it a shootout (as they did on Thursday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars), meaning they didn’t cover the O/U either.
But the NFL Week Seven brings new hopes…and new analysis. It also didn’t hurt that, after going 0-3 for the Week Six slate, I saw “Stanford” Steve on ESPN’s GameDay this morning and his overall record was almost the same as mine. To this mark of the season, Steve was 11-19-2 (.343) in his picks (makes you wonder if dropping “The Bear” was a good idea), while I’ve gone 6-11-1 (.333) with my choices. If a supposed “expert” is having a tough time, then ON WITH THE SHOW!
As always, all advice is offered for entertainment purposes only, but be ensured that a significant amount of thought has gone into each selection (home team in ALL CAPS).
Pittsburgh Steelers v. LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3)
Throw out any “historical” considerations that these two teams might have. The last time they played was in 2019 and both quarterbacks from that game – Ben Roethlisberger (retired) and Jared Goff (in Motown) – have moved on. There are a couple of things that have remained the same – both head coaches (Mike Tomlin for the Steel City Brigade and Sean McVay for Le Anges Mouton) and L. A. sports fans are indifferent to their own teams.
Even though the Rams have been to two Super Bowls in the past five years, winning one, the patronage at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles routinely sees the visiting team with a louder fan contingent. This has an effect; the Steelers went into a similar situation in Las Vegas to play the Raiders and beat the Silver and Black. I believe this will be a ball-control game, keeping Rams QB Matthew Stafford and his O on the sidelines. As long as the line for the Steelers can keep DL Aaron Donald off Kenny Pickett’s heels, then the Steelers can cover this spread.
PICK: Steelers +3
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) v. DENVER BRONCOS
Normally I would be supportive of the Broncos, especially at altitude in the Mile High City, but this Broncos team is woeful. There is even discussion about benching QB Russell Wilson because, if he is injured at some point in the 2023 season, then his contract is automatically guaranteed. That would limit the options for the Ponies this offseason, who would like to try to trade the disappointment that Wilson has been or, at worst, simply part ways with the QB.
The Pack, however, have shown their youth in limping out to a 2-3 record. QB Jordan Love is still trying to figure out the NFL quarterback position at times, and it hasn’t helped that RB Aaron Jones hasn’t played since Week One. While the Packers should take this down without Jones in the backfield, it would help tremendously if he were back in the fold this Sunday to carry some of the workload.
PICK: Packers -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (O/U 47.5)
This one should just be pure fun on the NFL Week Seven schedule as both high-powered offenses should run up and down the field against the other side’s defense. Both teams are Top Ten offenses, and they love to throw the ball (Chargers with 10 passing touchdowns, Chiefs eleven). In a strange statistical twist, the Chargers are averaging more points per game (25.4) than the Chiefs are (24.5). With all that info, it would be highly unlikely that we will see a defensive battle between these longtime AFC West foes.
PICK: OVER 47.5
