On Tuesdays and Thursdays I don’t make my kids go to pre-school. I have the luxury of working at home, so I figure while they’re still young enough, I might as well get to enjoy their company a couple days a week. The problem is, in between wiping up my one-year old’s messes (whether they be up top or down below) and playing school with my three-year old, there isn’t much time to do actual work. Fortunately, the internet can be surfed a few minutes at a time, when I have that brief window when both of them are playing nicely. It was during one of these moments today that I wandered into the “Beginners Questions” forum on Two Plus Two, a section that I haven’t looked at in a long time. Me? A beginner? Pffft. But one poster’s question struck a chord with me to the point that I thought it would be a good subject for this week’s article.
The poster wanted to know if he was “too scared of draws.” In his words, “I put in massive bets to defend even my strong hands and I constantly fold when a villain makes a strong play and it’s even distantly possible that I got drawn out on. I feel like, even at the micros, half-decent opponents start to exploit this by floating and donking draw cards. Or maybe they don’t exploit it and they really are just drawing out a lot? I really don’t know. ”
I know where he is coming from. In my formative poker years, my style was without a doubt weak-tight. Just like him, I always just assumed that when an apparent draw hit, someone must have made their hand. I played scared. But after a while, I came to realize that I need not be so paranoid.
Let’s look at the Two Plus Two poster’s example. He has A♦ K♥ offsuit, puts in a standard raise pre-flop and is called by an earlier limper. The flop is A♥ 8♣ 7♣ and, being deathly afraid of a flush draw or straight draw, our friend bets 80 percent of the pot, only to see his opponent call, which further enforces the negative thoughts. Then when the 5♣ lands on the turn, our hero just shuts it down, assuming his foe hit his draw.
Of course, there will always be times when the other guy does, in fact make his flush or straight. But remember, more often than not, he won’t. Think about what someone, particularly someone at the micro stakes (as it appears the poster plays), might have in the above hand. He very well might be limp-calling with a weaker Ace, perhaps A-Q, A-J, A-10, or even weaker. He might have other Broadway cards like K-Q or Q-J, as well as non-premium pairs. When he check-calls after the flop, we can probably rule out those offsuit K-Q and Q-J type hands as well as low pairs. But in addition to flush and straight draws, the opponent could easily still be holding an Ace or a pair higher than Eights.
On the turn, the 5♣ obviously raises some concerns, as it would complete the other player’s club flush or a straight. But let’s examine that further. It is extremely unlikely that the player, who limped out of position pre-flop and then called a raise, would now have a straight, as that would mean he played 4-6 or 6-9. A flush is definitely possible – he might have played a suited Ace combo or suited Broadway cards. So, in those cases, if he check-calls a bet on the turn, he may be slowplaying his made flush. But remember, in micros in particular, he may be riding an unsuited weaker Ace to the river (or maybe the Ace of clubs and he’s now trying to make his flush), or he may have stuck with a pair of Sixes, Tens, or Jacks. While there are realistic flush draws that he could have made, there are also plenty of realistic hands he could have that you still beat.
At the microstakes, players tend to play in a straightforward manner, so I wouldn’t worry too much about someone “floating and donking draw cards.” There are always exceptions, so you will just need to be observant and see if you can pick up patterns on how your opponents play. Similarly, try to determine who at the table is most likely to play suited Aces and the like out of position. But seeing as microstakes players don’t typically have many tricks up their sleeves, if you do encounter a raise after an apparent draw hits, it may be time to move on to the next hand.
As is always the case in poker, you never know exactly what your opponent has until he flips over his cards. In the case above, he could have made his draw, he could just have a pair, he could have flopped a set, or he could have junk. But playing scared is not the way to make money in the long run. Sure, if you stay on the attack and your opponent has drawn out on you, you are going to lose, and maybe even lose big, on that hand. There will also be plenty of occasions when you will win healthy pots, when your opponent decides that calling down with A-J is a great idea. You just have to read the situation and play smart. One thing I do know, though, is that folding every time a scare card shows up is a sure way to a reload.
