It is a little slow on the poker news front this week, so let’s expand outward into other forms of gambling, namely sports betting. I’m not a bettor myself – I really only participate in play money contests and I’m usually terrible even at those – but I do find sports betting interesting. Yesterday, ESPN.com published a story about the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team, the current terror of the hardwood, and how one sportsbook is actively rooting against them.
Kentucky was almost everybody’s pick to win the national championship before the season began and has done nothing but elevate expectations. This summer, according to the article by David Purdum, a customer of the William Hill sportsbook (it was not specified as to whether this was William Hill online or one of its physical locations, though brick-and-mortar was implied) asked for odds on Kentucky running the table this season and going undefeated. That was not a wager William Hill was actively offering, but granted the request and gave the customer 50-to-1 odds, which the person took.
Right now, as the calendar year draws to a close, Kentucky is 13-0 with the most difficult games already behind it. It had a tough non-conference schedule, but still easily beat the teams ranked 7th, 9th, 10th, and 15th in Ken Pomeroy’s highly respected mathematical college basketball rankings (KenPom for short). Kentucky is in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) which, unlike for football, is weak in basketball. As such, Kentucky is calculated to be no worse than a 77 percent favorite to win every single one of its remaining games. Only one other team, Virginia (ranked second to Kentucky in the KenPom standings), is at this point considered a favorite in every one of its remaining games and Virginia’s odds are much lower than Kentucky’s.
To illustrate how potentially easy Kentucky’s remaining schedule is, there are only four teams besides the Wildcats from the SEC in the top 40 of the KenPom rankings and only one of them is even in the top 30. For comparison, in Virginia’s conference, the ACC, there are five other teams in the top 40, but three of them are in the top TEN and the lowest is ranked 31st. And even as good as Virginia is so far this season, Kentucky is considered much better.
Many sports books have Kentucky as even odds to win the national championship and some have them as outright favorites, better than even odds.
All of this to say that it would actually take a major upset for Kentucky to lose any individual game. As such, William Hill may end up having to pay out a lot of money. William Hill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said that the money the anonymous customer stands to win is “pretty good six figures” and that he keeps adding on to the bet (though probably at lesser odds).
In all, William Hill accepted 39 bets on Kentucky at 50-to-1 odds, the largest of which was $500. But as the odds have gotten less tasty, more people have bet larger sums.
Other sportsbooks are rooting for Kentucky to fall, as well. The VP of the MGM sportsbook told ESPN that Kentucky has pulled in twice the number of bets to win it all than any other team in the country.
