In sports betting, one of the biggest mistakes that can be made is that of overreaction. Especially early in a season, what you see isn’t necessarily the type of team that you’re going to get for the entire season. Thus, you must make sure that you don’t have a “knee-jerk” reaction to things that you see – if you see the same thing happen for weeks at a time, THEN you might want to identify that as a “trend.”
As an example, you don’t need to look any further than the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, they laid a clunker on Opening Night against the Detroit Lions, but do you seriously think that they are going to underperform through the entirety of the 2023 season? The Chiefs do have another test coming at them for Week Two, with their journey to Jacksonville to battle the Jaguars, but over the next month, they have the Chicago Bears (home game), the New York Jets (without QB Aaron Rodgers), the Minnesota Vikings, the Denver Broncos (home), and the Los Angeles Chargers (home), teams that are a combined 1-5. I think Patrick Mahomes and Company will be fine.
There are some decent choices for the Week Two roster of games, however. As always, all advice is offered for entertainment purposes only but be ensured that a significant amount of thought has gone into each selection (home team in ALL CAPS).
San Francisco 49ers (-7) v. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Look, I know that the Niners looked every bit like the team that went to the NFC Title Game for 2023 last week, but here’s one of those overreactions…they’re on the road, against a team that is only one season removed from their own Super Bowl title, and they are SEVEN POINTS better than that team? San Francisco will face a much stronger test this time from a healthy Rams defense that features the terror that is Aaron Donald on the defensive front. Rams QB Matt Stafford seems to have returned to form after his extremely disappointing 2022, and the Rams’ running game seems to have been resurrected, too. Les Moutons may not win this game, but they’ll keep it closer than the spread…and that’s what matters.
Bet: Rams +7
Green Bay Packers v. ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5)
Once again, not sure what game the oddsmakers are looking at here. The Pack didn’t even break stride with QB Jordan Love under center, manhandling the Chicago Bears last week. The Falcons didn’t exactly have a challenge, even though they beat the Carolina Panthers, so this will be a step up for them. There was absolutely nothing in that Falcons/Panthers matchup that leads me to believe they have an answer for Jordan Love, RB Aaron Jones, or the Pack D in Week Two, which makes you wonder why the sharps have ATL as the favorite. Once again, I’ll take the points.
Bet: Packers +1.5
Baltimore Ravens v. CINCINNATI BENGALS (O/U 46.5)
This is another head-scratcher because both teams pride themselves on strong defenses. Considering that the Bengals didn’t exactly wow the crowd in their Week One catastrophe against the Cleveland Browns, losing 24-3 to Jameis Winston and Company. The Ravens weren’t exactly tested in their 25-9 win over the lowly Houston Texans, so this may be a game where both teams have something to prove. One thing for sure is that both defenses will show up for this tilt, which makes the O/U of 46.5 a rather high bar. Take the low in this one, especially if the chance of rain and a bit of a breeze come to pass.
Bet: UNDER 46.5
