When I spent the summers of 2005 and 2006 in Las Vegas covering the World Series of Poker, my favorite part of the festivities was when the Main Event was on the bubble. Standing next to a couple tables while the play is hand-for-hand and everyone is waiting to hear a dealer yell, “Seat open!” is fantastic. And it is incredibly easy to spot the amateurs – they are the ones steeped in tension, just hoping to make the money (not that I wouldn’t feel that way).
One of the most common lines I heard uttered by players, almost exclusively amateurs, was, “I’m folding everything until I make the money. Even pocket Aces.”
Most people who say this are not serious, but every year, without fail, I hear about someone who actually did fold Aces pre-flop and showed them to the table to prove it. The question that inevitably comes up after something like this is, “Is it ever reasonable to fold pocket Aces pre-flop?”
In short: yes. But first, let’s examine the World Series of Poker bubble example. I am not rich by any means. If I made the money in the Main Event, the $10,000+ (or $20,000, had I qualified via a cheap online satellite) profit I would see by making the money would be significant for me. That said, folding A-A just to try to sneak into the money would be an insult to all that is holy in poker. The goal of tournament poker is to win the entire tournament, not to simply survive. To fold the best hand pre-flop is criminal. You should be raising and re-raising that hand, hoping to get all your chips in before the flop. Sure, if you see a flop and start to sense danger, make your read and fold if it makes sense, just like you would with any other hand. But don’t fold pre-flop. You will be a huge favorite to win with pocket Aces.
Of course, if that money would truly be life changing to you, then it might not be the most horrible move of all time to fold, but if the money is life changing, that means you are broke and really shouldn’t be playing in a high stakes poker tournament.
In a cash game, it is even worse to fold A-A pre-flop. If you lose, you can just reach into your pocket and re-buy. At least there is a logical reason for someone to fold in a tournament (albeit a bad reason). But in a cash game? If you fold A-A pre-flop, you might as well just give up the game of poker right then and there.
Now, there is a scenario where it might make sense mathematically to fold, but it is a highly contrived scenario, one which will never come up. Without getting into too much detail, it would be a hand in which everybody at a 10-handed table goes all-in ahead of you and you know that the hands you are facing give your A-A equity that is worse than your pot odds. But this will never happen because a) you will never know everyone’s hand, and b) the hands will never be dealt exactly as needed to make the math work. So forget that whole scenario.
Now on to the one time that it is absolutely fine, and actually appropriate, to fold the strongest starting hand in Hold’em pre-flop: on the bubble in a satellite tournament. Satellites are unique in that the prize structure does not gradually escalate. All of the players who “make the money” all win the same thing, a seat into another tournament. Everyone else wins nothing. Thus, unless the only person who receives a seat is the winner, it is of no added benefit to win the tournament over placing elsewhere in the money.
For example, if you are playing in a World Series of Poker satellite and seven players win a seat to the Main Event, winning the tournament is worth just as much as placing seventh (in fact, once the field is down to seven, the tournament will be stopped, anyway). Thus, if you are in the final eight and have a medium to large stack, there is no reason to take any unnecessary chances.
Think about it. Let’s say you are the second largest stack and the one player with a stack larger than yours goes all-in pre-flop, probably in an attempt to bully the table. In most situations, you would insta-call with A-A, but on the bubble of a satellite, there is no point. Aces are not guaranteed to win and doubling-up an already healthy stack isn’t important, since you do not need to win the tournament. If you lose, you are gone, when all you had to do was outlast one more player. There will inevitably be a short stack or two just hoping to survive – let them risk their chips as the blinds and antes eat them up.
Even if the player who goes all-in ahead of you does not have you covered, it is still usually wise to fold, as you do not want to risk losing a significant portion of your chips and becoming a short stack. If the all-in player is a very short stack, sure, go ahead and call, but be careful if there are other players left to act. While an over-the-top all-in would likely force everyone else to fold, it might not, and is again an unnecessary risk to take. The bottom line is that you should not play unless you absolutely must. Let the short stacks sweat it out and allow others to do your dirty work for you.
This is not to say that you should not raise pre-flop if you have the opportunity to open the betting, but just be cautious. If someone who can do you significant harm decides to play back at you, do not let your ego override common sense. Live to see another hand. As with any other poker hand, it is important to understand the situation and play appropriately. In this case, that means folding your pocket rockets pre-flop unless losing the hand would make only the tiniest of dents in your chip stack.
