One more upset to go
The NFL’s regular season ended yesterday, as frenetic day of action saw playoff seeds cemented and teams squeak their way into the postseason field. Tonight, it is college football’s turn in the spotlight, with the defending champ Georgia Bulldogs squaring off against the TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. For Georgia, it’s an opportunity to be the first repeat champs in a decade and the first back-to-back winners of the College Football Playoff era, and for TCU, it is the opportunity to make underdog history.
With just hours to go before the championship game kicks off, TCU is a 13-point underdog, the biggest underdog ever in a college football title game (an official national championship game was established in 1992 after back-to-back years of split AP and coaches’ poll national champs). Ohio State currently holds the record, entering the 2002 championship (played in 2003) as 11-point underdogs to Miami before winning, 31-24.
Interestingly, the only two teams before this year to enter the title game as double-digit underdogs, Ohio State (+11) and Oklahoma (+10), both won.
Should TCU emerge victorious, it would also be the longest preseason shot to win the championship in any sport, ever. According to Sports Odds History, TCU was 200-1 to win the national title just before the 2022-2023 season began, putting it among many teams that turned out to be quite bad (Auburn, Virginia) or good teams that realistically had no shot at winning it all (Army, Minnesota). As TCU proved its mettle throughout the season, its futures odds improved every week.
Other longshots pale in comparison to TCU
As ESPN points out, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who ushered in the “Greatest Show on Turf” era, began the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl after starting quarterback Trent Green hurt his knee in the preseason and was lost for the entire season. Unknown backup Kurt Warner stepped in and launched his Hall of Fame career, leading the Rams to the title.
Other preseason longshots to win championships include MLB’s 1991 Minnesota Twins (80-1), NHL’s 2006 Carolina Hurricanes (60-1), and men’s college basketball’s 2014 University of Connecticut (65-1).
ESPN says that there haven’t been any unusual large bets on TCU (well, except for Mattress Mack), so the sportsbooks don’t have any insane sweats, but Caesars told the sports media leader that 90% of the moneyline bets have been on TCU.
TCU was favored in ten of its 14 games this season, not counting tonight’s championship game. Its only outright loss was in the Big XII title game against Kansas State. Kansas State went in as a small 1.5-point favorite and won 31-28 in overtime. The College Football Playoff selection committee, though, didn’t hold that end-of-season loss against TCU, still giving the Horned Frogs the third seed.
TCU was an 8-point dog to Michigan in the playoff seminal match and won 51-45.
