Eric Lynch Discusses Bluff Poker Challenge Strategy

Last month, I was approached by Bluff Magazine to take part in its “Bluff Poker Challenge.” For those of you who are unfamiliar with the event that will be taking place in March, a dozen or so players were invited. Each of them will start with $200 on Lock Poker and we will have the entire month to turn that into as much money as possible through only tournaments and sit and gos. The winner gets a cover and feature story in Bluff Magazine.

I accepted the challenge, but it presents some very unique problems as far as strategy. Since there is no second prize, winning is definitely a priority that takes place over simply trying to maximize value. This may seem like the same thing, but it’s really not. Let’s say, for example, that there is a strategy that utilizes bankroll management that should allow me to turn my $200 into somewhere in the $2,000 to $4,000 range pretty consistently every month. That’s not a bad profit on a $200 bankroll, but I can just about guarantee it will never win the Challenge. Let’s say there is another strategy that, on average, is maybe only going to make $1,500 to $2,000 per month, but is prone to wild swings where 80% of the time I will have $0 at the end of the month and 20% of the time I will have $10,000. While, on average, that strategy makes less money, for the purposes of this contest it is superior since it gives me a chance to win.

That brings into context bankroll management. Normally, I’m a complete bankroll nit and adhere to very strict guidelines on the limits I will play based on the amount of money I’m willing to risk at any given time. In this particular contest, though, going bust doesn’t mean I can’t pay my mortgage; it just means that I won’t win the contest. So, I can use much looser bankroll guidelines for my play knowing that it might make me finish with $0, but it also gives me the best chance of building a big bankroll.

I also must factor in opportunity cost. That is, I will often spend $200 on a single tournament in a night. Until I’m able to build the initial $200 up significantly higher (or if I’m able to build it significantly higher), any time I spend playing in the challenge is costing me money that I would potentially make playing a higher limit game elsewhere. This may not seem significant, but if I’m passing up a $200 tournament where I have a 25% ROI on another site to play in a $10 tournament where I have a 100% ROI for the contest, I am costing myself $40 by playing in the contest. While it’s not quite that simple, if I do this 200 times over the month, I’m costing myself $8,000.

Presumably, I’ll be able to build up my money for the Challenge, narrow that gap, and will still be playing a lot of my regular schedule, so in reality the cost shouldn’t be nearly that high. With all of those things to consider, I must formulate a strategy. I could grind sit and gos for a while, try to get up over $1,000, and then start taking significant shots in tournaments. This probably lessens my chance of busting, but it also means that unless I spend a significant time building that up, I could quickly fall behind one or two players who make a decent score early.

So maybe a higher risk approach is more appropriate? After all, building your bankroll up quickly gives you a significant advantage as if I’m playing $20-$50 tournaments regularly and someone else is still stuck in the $5-$10 range. If I do this, I increase my risk of going broke much earlier, but whoever jumps out to an early lead will have a significant advantage over the field. Also, if I do go to $0 early, obviously my opportunity cost disappears and I’ll just go back to playing in my regular games.

I haven’t formulated a final strategy yet. I think some of it is going to depend on how the other players do. I’m not 100% sure how it’s going to work, but I believe all of us will be doing regular video updates, so we will know how the others are doing. Obviously, the further that people are behind, the more prone to taking risks they will become. It should prove to be an interesting contest and while I’m not sure it does much to determine who the best poker player is, it will be very interesting to follow. Also, the Challenge should include strategy outside of what I normally use for poker in determining the route that gives me the best chance to win.

I’ll also have to factor in having family obligations. I may not have as much time to spend on the Challenge as other participants do. While that gives me a disadvantage, if I plan for it, I can adjust my strategy and risk accordingly to give myself the best chance to win.