Abusing the money bubble has become an effective tactic in tournament poker. It is generally accepted that players should turn up the aggression as the bubble approaches because, in most cases, players will tighten up to guarantee a cash reward.
No better example of this practice came than at the 2009 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. With the money bubble looming and a payday of $21,365 in sight, short stacks began folding premium pocket pairs face up as bigger stacks applied pressure. On multiple occasions, pocket kings hit the muck pre-flop and the standard “abc” poker went completely out the window.
If you’ve been following ESPN’s coverage of this year’s Main Event, then you might recall the final hand on the bubble between Kansas pro Reed Hensel and Kia Hamadani that later created some debate among poker fanatics. With 649 players remaining and the top 648 getting paid, Hamadani was all-in for his last chip when Hensel made a play at the pot with rags to drive out the other players at the table and win the side pot. Hensel’s hand ultimately trumped Hamadani’s to secure a payday for the remaining players in the field. Hensel took some time with Poker News Daily to discuss the hand.
Hand Recap:
Blinds 2,500/5,000, ante 500
One spot before the money, Hamadani is all-in pre-flop for his last blue 500 chip. Hamadani, in early position, doesn’t peek at his hole cards and the action folds around to Hensel in the hijack. Hensel raises to 17,000 with 9h-2c. Marty Zabib calls from the small blind and Mike Nye decides to tag along from the big blind.
On a flop of Qh-6h-Qd, Zabib and Nye check and Hensel fires out a continuation bet of 20,000. The two players fold and Hensel scoops the side pot worth 51,000. Now that he’s heads-up against the short stack, Hensel tables 9h-2c. A cheerful Hamadani becomes visibly crushed as he turns over 4c-3h. The Amazon Room erupts as Hensel’s nine-high is in front and, when the nine of diamonds lands on the turn, Hamadani is left drawing dead. Hensel scoops the main pot of 4,500 and Hamadani is ousted one spot out of the money.
Poker News Daily: First, describe a little bit how this table was playing on the money bubble. Were the players being passive for the most part? Was anyone opening a high percentage of pots?
Hensel: My table was incredibly passive on the bubble. One guy folded J-J face up from the big blind to my 2.5x opening raise. I was fortunate to land the best seat at the table as well. I was in Seat 6 or 7 and the only two people that really knew how to exploit the bubble were to my direct right. This meant that for seven out of nine hands every orbit, I had position on both of them. If both of them folded, I raised and took the blinds down. If one of them opened, I could 3bet them with any two cards and put them in a very tough spot. I 3bet their raises around 30% of the time. I would have done it more, but they were folding probably more than they should have, so I was happy with taking the blinds four times per orbit.
PND: Did Hamadani’s declining stack affect your bubble strategy?
Hensel: I don’t think this had much of an effect of what I was doing. He started the day with 200,000 in chips and then got down to 30,000, where he folded every hand until the bubble hand. I guess if he had maintained a stack, it could have influenced my play more because he seemed really aggressive, so I imagine he would have wanted a piece of the free blinds as well. Everyone else at the table knew that we were really close to the money and they could look at Hamadani’s stack and see that all they had to do was wait him out, hence they became more willing to fold to my raises.
PND: I’m assuming that since you opened the betting with 9-2 offsuit, you would make this play with any two cards. Talk about the value of raising pre-flop in such a critical situation.
Hensel: It’s really common knowledge that around the bubble is the best point in a poker tournament to apply pressure by raising and taking pots down uncontested. There isn’t a tournament where this is more apparent than the Main Event. I haven’t played too many $10,000 tournaments outside of two Main Events, but I can’t imagine that in some random WPT or EPT stop people are folding A-A and K-K too often just to double their money.
Like I said earlier, a guy showed me his J-J and folded to my pre-flop open even though I had been raising four or five times an orbit. Because of this and my dream situation at the table, I simply had to raise every hand when they folded to me. The blinds were 2,500-5,000 with a 500 ante. I would raise to 12,000 or 13,000 and win 12,000 chips. I really don’t think I got called once out of 30 or so raises. I probably ran good and didn’t run into Q-Q, K-K, or A-A, so in reality, I probably should have gotten raised all-in once or twice. The point still stands that risking 12,000 to win 12,000 is incredibly profitable when it works somewhere around 85% of the time.
PND: Zabib and Nye decided to call and take a flop. With what range of hands would you expect them to defend their blinds in this spot?
Hensel: When both solid players folded to me, I knew I was raising before I looked at my cards and they just happened to be 9-2. I decided to make it 17,000 pre-flop instead of my standard 12,000 because I really wanted them to fold so I could win the 7,500 chips and maybe get more bubble hands in if Hamadani beat me. I thought this would make it seem like I had a premium hand. I figured both Zabib and Nye would fold, but it wasn’t too surprising that they flatted.
A standard thing to do in this situation is to check every hand down through the river to help the odds that one of our three hands beats the all-in hand. However, this is not the smartest thing to do, especially when a side pot is involved. At the time, I figured Zabib had a slightly above average hand, probably a middle pair or A-J suited. I figured Nye had any two cards, as he would have the amateurish attitude of checking it down.
PND: How often are you expecting them to fold after you made a continuation bet on the flop? Explain why this play is so profitable.
Hensel: On the specific flop of Q-Q-6, I thought they would fold just about everything. I bet small for two reasons. One, I thought it would represent a strong hand and could possibly get a hand like A-6 or 7-7 to fold. Second, if one of them had a hand that they wouldn’t fold like 6-6 or Q-X, then I save myself chips because I would have shut down had either of them check-called the flop. The side pot was 51,000 and I risked 20,000 to win it, which I do probably 80% of the time. At that point, I didn’t care about the 4,500 in the main pot. It turns out that I maybe even overestimated their calling range because Nye said he folded Ah-Kh, which was a nut flush draw. If he folds this, I could see him folding Q-2 to Q-J and possibly K-Q. He just really wanted to cash.
PND: How much did “making the money” in the WSOP Main Event mean to you? Were you playing it the same way you’d play any tournament online?
Hensel: I played the entire tournament a lot tighter than I would online. People in this tournament give up too much with a deep stack, making it kind of silly to get into leveling wars with other good players. Making the money did matter to me, but I wouldn’t have been crushed if I had bubbled. I pretty much didn’t want to go out on some crazy bluff out of the money, but I wasn’t going to pass on a +EV spot just to make it in.
PND: I’ve had people try to convince me that you only made this play because the ESPN cameras were rolling. Is there any truth to that?
Hensel: None at all. As cliché as it sounds, I didn’t even notice them during the hand.
PND: You ultimately finished in 70th place in the Main Event, collecting $90,344. How would you grade your experience over the six days?
Hensel: I had a great time in this tournament. On each of the first three days, I lost half of my stack during the first level and then spent the rest of each day grinding it back. This was emotionally exhausting and I’m glad there were a lot of off days up front or I may not have made it. Overall, though, I give myself an A+ and hope to make the final 100 again in the next few years, as I think I learned a lot about end game strategy in live tournaments.
