After the debacle that was the third week of the season, we were able to turn things around a bit in the NFL Week Four results. But that is the way it works in any long-term activity, especially when it comes to sports betting. You’re not going to get everything you want, but sometimes you do get what you need.
When it comes to sports betting, you’ll be fortunate if you can pull a 55/45 split on your wagers. You might be able to hike that up to 60%, if you’re on a particularly good run, but most of the time it’s going to be two steps forward, one step back – and that’s what you want. Unless you are some sort of savant, then you just try to stay ahead of the dreaded 50/50, which means that the only person winning is the book taking the juice off your wagers.
Oh, and another thing – touts that don’t present a full picture of what their record is are to be avoided. You’ll often see that “Hot Streak Harry” went 11-3 last week!” as a way to promote their pickers. The better question to ask would be what is “Hot Streak Harry’s” record over the last year? The last three years? Long-term success is measured by small increments, not by huge edges.
For the NFL Week Four, we were able to score a positive result for the week. Here’s a look back at the games we picked…always nice to book a solid win!
PICK #1 – Las Vegas Raiders v. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (O/U 49.5)
Pick – UNDER 49.5
Result – Chargers 24, Raiders 17 (WIN)
It was a bit worrisome in the first half when the Bolts got off to a quick start, putting up 17 points in the first half. Serving in our favor, however, was the factor that Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t start the game, putting things in the hands of rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell didn’t embarrass himself, but he just wasn’t up to the task of leading this dysfunctional unit to the W or the game to the OVER, either.
PICK #2 – Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) v. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Pick – Carolina +4.5
Result – Vikings 21, Panthers 13 (LOSS)
Ah, if an NFL game were only three quarters – OK, a little LESS than three quarters. Carolina held the lead at the half, 13-7, but was unable to muster anything in the second half behind a gimpy QB Bryce Young. It was a Young fumble on a Harrison Smith sack that led to a D. J. Wonnum touchdown return that pushed the Norsemen into the lead. From there, Vikes QB Kirk Cousins was able to cobble together another TD with WR Justin Jefferson that proved the difference.
PICK #3 – Miami Dolphins v. BUFFALO BILLS (-3)
Pick – Buffalo -3
Result – Bills 48, Dolphins 20
Buffalo took the fight to the previously undefeated Miami squad from the start and never looked back. This was a game that I thought would also challenge the O/U (it did), and I thought that the Bills would cover the spread…didn’t think it would be FOUR TOUCHDOWNS of cover, however. This will be a fun game to look forward to coming to the end of the year when the two teams will renew hostilities in Miami this time around – and it could be for the AFC East title.
Going to let some more info come in for the Week Five schedule, just in case some changes occur over the next couple of days. One thing that has come up is that Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t practiced yet this week, putting a potential damper on what could be a big day for him against the Panthers on Sunday. Don’t forget that this is another “Breakfast from London” weekend as the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bills take on each other. Might be a week to keep an eye on the Jags as the Bills come off the euphoria of their big win over the Fins.
NFL Week Four Results – 2-1
NFL 2023 Season Results – 4-7-1