In the world of sports betting, sometimes your greatest friend can be something that both bettors and books hate – the push. This is something we saw in the NFL Week Two picks, where the line set by the book – say -3 or -7 as to the spread or the rare case when the O/U is a whole number (hardly ever done) – is hit exactly in the game being prognosticated. In these cases, the outcome is called a “push” and, when it occurs, the book gives wagers back to the bettor, minus the vig (the processing fee for taking the bet), making nobody a winner except the book for that little bit charged for administration.
This is one of the reasons you’ll see so many bets with what is called “the hook” on them. Instead of sticking on a line that is -7 – one team is favored by seven points over another – you’ll more often see a -6.5 or -7.5 line laid down. This gives that extra point a bit more meaning in a game or, as in the case of one of the games we prognosticated during the NFL Week Two schedule, turned out to sway millions of dollars in bets.
Without further ado, we’re going to look at the three-game slate that we took for the NFL Week Two schedule, which turned out a profit with the push game we had. It points out why you must be mindful of “the hook” when you’re examining the bets you make.
PICK #1 – San Francisco 49ers (-7) v. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Pick – Rams +7
Result – San Francisco 30, L. A. Rams 23 (PUSH)
This game, at least as far as bettors were concerned, came down to the very last second. Down by ten with :04 remaining, Rams head coach Sean McVay inexplicably sent out his kicker to try for a field goal. Kicker Brett Maher drilled the field goal for the final score, sending bettors – and some books – into a frenzy. By bringing the final score to a seven-point differential, millions of dollars had to be refunded to bettors for the push.
The case was even more drastic for those bettors who picked up on the 49ers when the line was set at -7.5 (that dreaded “hook”). Before the field goal, those bettors were counting their money to cover the spread. With the field goal, that money went right out the window…this is where the term “bad beat” REALLY got its start!
PICK #2 – Green Bay Packers v. ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5)
Pick – Packers +1.5
Result – Atlanta 25, Green Bay 24 (WIN)
Confession to make here – if I had waited until Sunday morning to place my bet, I would have probably changed it to the Falcons, especially when the news came down that two main cogs to the Packer offense were going to miss the game. RB Aaron Jones and OL David Bakhtiari both missed the game last Sunday and I thought that would have a significant impact on the result. As it was, my original breakdown was on point and QB Jordan Love and the boys from Green Bay prevailed in the long run.
PICK #3 – Baltimore Ravens v. CINCINNATI BENGALS (O/U 46.5)
Pick – UNDER 46.5
Result – Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 24 (LOSS)
Another case of “so close” to the win for our NFL Week Two slate. Baltimore led the game in the fourth quarter, 27-17, which would have brought the Under home for us. Alas, it wasn’t to be – Bengal QB Joe Burrow led his Queen City Kitties on a 17-play, 80-yard drive that culminated in a touchdown – goodbye, Under!
We’ve got a few more days before we must log our picks for Sunday’s games, but for those who are taking on the Thursday night tilt between the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers, there is some news. Giants RB Saquon Barkley has already been ruled out for the game with a sprained ankle, and TE Darren Waller (brought over from the Las Vegas Raiders this last offseason) has been nursing his own injuries. This makes life a bit tougher for QB Daniel Jones, surely. For the Niners, WR Brandon Aiyuk is questionable (the Niners are saying it is a “fluid” situation), but he spent much of last season with that designation and didn’t miss any games. Use this info as you see fit…
NFL Week Two Results – 1-1-1
NFL 2023 Season Results – 2-3-1