We’ve reached the midway point in the four-month break until the start of World Series of Poker (WSOP) November Nine festivities, but the anticipation for the big event has yet to slow down. With big performances from Kevin Schaffel and Steven Begleiter at the World Poker Tour’s (WPT) Legends of Poker, Joe “jcada99” Cada’s standout run in several PokerStars World Championship of Online Poker (WCOOP) events, and Jeff Shulman’s recent announcement that the one and only Phil Hellmuth will be serving as his poker coach, these nine men have kept themselves at the forefront of poker news.
So who will win the 2009 WSOP Main Event? Poker News Daily sought the insight of some of the other players who made incredible runs at this year’s Main Event as well as a couple of our own writers who spent the summer keeping a very close eye on the action. You’ll be surprised to read just how many of them did not opt for fan favorite Phil Ivey.
One player who is more than familiar with most of the November Nine is 12th place finisher in this year’s Main Event and Ultimate Bet sponsored pro Billy “Patrolman35” Kopp. The young online poker pro logged several hours with most of the players, including a stint where he was seated on Ivey’s direct right. However, Kopp suggests that Ivey is not the one that viewers should be keeping their eye on:
“I think the man to look out for is Kevin Schaffel,” Kopp predicted. “Throughout the eight days that I played in the Main Event, this guy impressed me the most. I was at several of his tables for an extended period of time and this was the one guy who really gave me trouble. I am not sure if he was just getting some outstanding short-term luck and letting the cards speak or if he truly was playing exquisite poker. I am going to go with the latter, especially after his recent runner-up performance at [the WPT Legends of Poker]…I wish everyone much luck at the final table, as I have played with most of them at some point in the tournament. However, I really applaud Kevin and the performance he put on, at least while I was there. I am anxious to see some of the hands we got tangled in on television in a couple of weeks.”
Kopp is referring to Schaffel’s big score last month, when he made the final table of the WPT event and held his own against the likes of Toto Leonidas, online pros Todd Terry and Sam Stein, and the event’s champion, Prahlad Friedman. Many are comparing his performance to Ivan Demidov’s runner-up finish at the Main Event of the WSOP Europe in 2008. Last year, Demidov established himself as one of the frontrunners to win the Main Event with his performance and it appears that Schaffel is cementing a similar reputation.
Another online pro with plenty of insight into the minds of the November Nine is 22 year-old Nick “fu_15” Maimone, who came in 14th in this year’s Main Event. He is less certain than Kopp about his pick, but offered his thoughts nonetheless.
“It is complicated,” Maimone explained. “I expect the coaching factor could highly influence the outcome of the Main Event. However, the best players are, in this order, Phil Ivey, James Akenhead, and Joe Cada. Although the chips are not in their favor, one of them will win.” Those three are short on chips, especially Ivey and Akenhead, who are seventh and ninth on the leaderboard, respectively. Ivey may be short on chips, but Maimone still believes the skill differential will make a huge difference come competition time: “Antoine Saout is decent and so is Eric Buchman, but the other four do not even come close in terms of skill. I hope Ivey or Akenhead wins, but honestly I think Ivey will.”
Maimone is in the minority of the people we polled about their predictions though and he was the only one who picked the seven-time WSOP bracelet winner. The writers here at Poker News Daily weighed in with their picks as well and, while they all conceded Ivey was likely the most skilled player at the table, they each went with a different horse to win the big race.
Brett Collson, who moonlighted as a reporter for PocketFivesLive.com in addition to his Poker News Daily duties during the Main Event, went with the lone internet pro at the table as his choice. “We’ve seen short stacks excel at the Main Event final table in the past and I foresee it happening again this year,” Collson theorized. “While Ivey might be the popular pick, Joe Cada‘s cool demeanor and relentless aggression could create problems for the leaders from the get-go. He has plenty of chips to make some moves and is my pick to become the youngest Main Event winner ever in November.”
Staff Writer Earl Burton elected to go with the other November Niner to make a name for himself at the Legends of Poker event, Steven Begleiter. “I have a feeling that everyone and their brother is going to pick Phil Ivey, but, to be honest, I think he is too short-stacked to have a tremendous impact,” said Burton. He discounted the current chip leader from the mix as well.
“I believe that Darvin Moon is just happy to be where he is. I believe that he is going to succumb to ‘Dennis Phillips Syndrome’ and forget what got him there. I am going to go with Steven Begleiter, who just completed an excellent run at the Legends of Poker, to win the final table. You can put Jeff Shulman in there as a potential dark horse contender.”
While Burton offered reasons why several of the players may or may not excel, our own Dan Cypra went with the straightforward, pick the chip leader approach, which makes plenty of sense considering Moon’s massive lead. “It’s hard to ignore Darvin Moon, who has nearly double the chips of the next closest player,” Cypra pointed out. “It’s reminiscent of Jamie Gold in the 2006 Main Event and Moon is my pick to win the 2009 version. While Ivey may be poker’s darling, the chip lead of Moon cannot be ignored.”
If you haven’t noticed, that is five different opinions and five different picks. If this informal poll tells us anything, it is that the Main Event race is still wide-open, with each player bringing something to the table that the rest of their opponents lack. Only time will tell who, if anyone, picked correctly, so until November all we can do is sit, wait, and keep coming up with reasons why our pick is going to be the one to take it down.
