OK, we know how we got to this point and we know how the men will line up on the felt. When the cards hit the air this afternoon at the Penn & Teller Theater in the Rio All-Suites Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, the 2016 World Series of Poker Championship Event will draw closer to a conclusion.
For most of the United States and Europe, the final table play will take place after dark. Beginning at 8PM (Eastern time U. S.), the players will open action on the tournament. At 8:30PM, the cameras of ESPN will come to life to bring poker aficionados the play of the final table in a “plausibly live” setting (something that has been very popular with ESPN, WSOP officials and fans alike). The ESPN broadcast will last until 11PM, at which point it will switch over to ESPN2 until most likely the final six players are determined.
Monday’s action will pick up where Sunday’s concludes, with the broadcast beginning at 8PM and being shown exclusively on ESPN2 (yes, Monday Night Football takes priority over the WSOP Championship Event) and through its WatchESPN app. Play will continue until the final three players are determined, at which point the play will stop again. The conclusion will play out on Tuesday night starting at 9PM on ESPN.
Now that we know the television schedule for the next few nights, it’s time to peer into the Crystal Ball and see just what plays out for the “November Nine” final table. Remember, these picks are for entertainment only but, if we get them all right, we’re heading out for a batch of lottery tickets!
Ninth Place – Jerry Wong
Wong is in the unfortunate place that he will be under the gun for the very first hand of play and will be in the blinds on the next two hands. He’s got an M of 6.8 and is sitting on 10,175,000 (20bb), arguably putting him most at risk in the remaining 30 minutes of the level. As such, he’s going to have to get active quick, otherwise the big stacks around him – Gordon Vayo, Kenny Hallaert, Griffin Benger and Vojtech Ruzicka – are going to chew him up.
Why do I think that Wong will go before the short stack Fernando Pons? Because I believe that Pons will be hanging on by his fingernails, looking for that next step on the pay ladder rather than playing to win the tournament. I expect that Wong is going to try to bring himself back to viability in the early going and, as such, he’ll be taking more risks. If Wong can double up and get some ammunition, the rest of the table might want to beware.
Eighth Place – Fernando Pons
If Wong is to depart in ninth place, look for Pons to be very happy to go next. With only 6.15 million to start the action on Sunday, he’s in worse shape that Wong but also understands that people are EXPECTING him to push his stack. Thus, if he can hold on for dear life for at least a couple of rotations (using up 1.45 million chips per rotation), he might be able to outlast Wong or another big clash at the table. Hey, he’s in Vegas, he’s having fun…Pons will want to get another $100,000 for his efforts.
Seventh Place – Vojtech Ruzicka
Whatever the order of the first two – be it Wong then Pons or vice versa (and who takes them out will be important – I see Vayo knocking off Wong and Nguyen taking down Pons) – it will be quite some time before the next elimination. Not only will the play conclude for the night with the knockout (and nobody wants that dubious honor), it will also be the last mini-jump in pay. The $1.25 million the seventh-place player receives will be but a pittance to the $2.574 million the fourth-place finisher on Monday night will get.
The Crystal Ball is a bit fuzzy on this, but Ruzicka is the name it keeps bringing up for this spot. Without Pons as a buffer between him and Nguyen and facing Benger (who I see slowly chipping up, looking for the endgame) on his right, there’s going to come a point when he challenges one or the other (don’t forget that Hallaert and Vayo will also be lurking when he’s in the blinds). Ruzicka is a solid player so I don’t see him making a mistake, but I do see a bad beat potentially sending him home.
Sixth Place – Michael Ruane
For some reason, I just don’t see Ruane gaining much traction through the play on Sunday and, come the opening of action on Monday, it looks like he’ll be the next to go. Josephy will be merciless on him (and, if he isn’t, then Nguyen will be) and the constant pushing by the big stacks could force him into a mistake. Should he finish here, Ruane has nothing to be glum about, he’s played a hell of a tournament.
Fifth Place – Gordon Vayo
Much like with Ruzicka, I don’t see Vayo making a big mistake that will doom his tournament life, I see a bad beat that will either decimate his stack or send him home. After making it through the carnage of Sunday, Vayo will run into some brutal cards that don’t leave him many opportunities to act on anything and he’ll suffer the slow bleed of the blinds and antes rather than a strategic attack from another player.
Fourth Place – Qui Nguyen
This one will be the surprise as, with the second-place stack to start the action on Sunday, Nguyen will be leaving before heads up play. Throughout the broadcasts on ESPN and following the action online, Nguyen strikes me as an aggressive player that can be prone to a mistake here or there. The big question is will all his chips go at once or will he ship them off equally between the final three contenders? The answer to that question could be the difference maker in who wins the WSOP Championship Event.
Third Place – Griffin Benger
If he’s not the benefactor of knocking out Nguyen or taking a big portion of his chips, I can see Benger being the first man out on Tuesday night. He also has played a great tournament, but the two gentlemen left with him have a vast amount of experience that will EVENTUALLY thwart Benger. That $3.45 million-plus payday will help salve the wounds.
Heads Up – Kenny Hallaert vs. Cliff Josephy
By the time we’ve reached heads up action I expect that Josephy has the chip lead, probably from eliminating Nguyen but also through steady building in the previous two days with strategic attacks and no one wanting to go against the chip leader. Hallaert could be a thorn in Josephy’s side, however, as he will be a formidable opponent in what will be an epic struggle between two men who, either way it goes, will be a marvelous World Champion of poker and an ambassador of the game.
Recapping, this is the way they’ll finish in the WSOP Championship Event:
1. Cliff Josephy
2. Kenny Hallaert
3. Griffin Benger
4. Qui Nguyen
5. Gordon Vayo
6. Michael Ruane
7. Vojtech Ruzicka
8. Fernando Pons
9. Jerry Wong
Be sure to begin watching tonight at 8:30PM on ESPN (or through the WatchESPN app) and we’ll see if the Crystal Ball is in fine working order or we need to send it back to Merlin for repairs!