With the conclusion of the 2012 World Series of Poker Championship Event on Tuesday night (OK, Wednesday morning), the poker community has a new World Champion in Greg Merson and several stories about one of the most exciting final tables in the past few years. On Sunday, I predicted how the final table would play out, so it only seems appropriate to check those prognostications from the poker “crystal ball” to see how accurate it was.
9th Place – Steven Gee (predicted 7th)
Gee was a bit of a surprise to go out this early as he was sitting in the middle of the pack when the final table began on Monday. His demise came with a move against a fellow mid-packer, Russell Thomas, that wasn’t as bad as it seems.
On a 7-5-4-J-3 board, Gee pushed the remainder of his chips to the center of the felt holding pocket eights. With the board presenting not only a straight draw but several possibilities in trips, Thomas had a difficult decision to make with his pocket Queens. After a great deal of deliberation, Thomas made the call and Gee winced, seemingly knowing he was beat.
Overall, the push by Gee wasn’t a bad thing. If Thomas didn’t have those Queens, he very well could have laid the hand down and Gee would move up the leaderboard. It was simply bad timing for the move from Gee that sent him home with only the trip back to Las Vegas to show for his efforts (all players had previously received ninth place money following the pause of the tournament back in July).
8th Place – Robert Salaburu (predicted 9th)
Salaburu is the one player of the final table lineup that might be able to claim a bit of bad luck. Running his pocket Queens into Jacob Balsiger’s pocket Kings to double up Balsiger was definitely a cooler, but the ultimate indignity was in his final hand against Jesse Sylvia.
In a blind versus blind battle, Sylvia pushed all in only holding a Q-5 and putting Salaburu to a decision for his tournament existence. Looking down at two red sevens, Salaburu figured that Sylvia was trying to steal from him (he was) and made the call. Things went well through the flop and turn, but Sylvia was able to catch lightning in a bottle with the Queen on the river to eliminate Salaburu from the tournament.
Although Salaburu caught flak from some for his tournament demeanor during the Championship Event, I personally liked his quick acting style when it came to his decisions. Change those two hands that cost him his stack and we may be talking about Salaburu’s deep run rather than his departure in eighth place.
7th Place – Michael Esposito (predicted 5th)
Not having many chips to fight with, Esposito seemed to be looking to last as long as possible on the ESPN broadcasts rather than trying to grow his stack. With the money that was on the line for the players, that is entirely respectable to do that. Esposito’s extra $500,000-plus for the seventh place finish will allow him to dabble a bit more in tournaments on the East Coast, so players there should be prepared to see the New Yorker on the felt more often.
6th Place – Andras Koroknai (predicted 3rd)
Koroknai is the one player at the table that could be construed as having a meltdown. It is completely understandable why, however; with both eventual champ Merson and Sylvia on his immediate right three-, four- and five betting him, Koroknai had to be getting a bit steamed at being rolled over by the duo. It was just another episode of bad timing that knocked the Hungarian out of the tournament.
After a raise from Merson and a three-bet out of Sylvia, Koroknai four bet the duo with a K-Q. Unlike past steals by Merson and Sylvia, this time one had the goods; Merson five bet Koroknai and, after Sylvia slipped out, Koroknai moved all in and was called immediately by Merson’s Big Slick. Koroknai grimaced as the cards were revealed and, once the board ran eight high, Koroknai was gone from the event.
5th Place – Jeremy Ausmus (predicted 6th)
Ausmus’ run at the final table would have been the most notable event save for the player who took those honors by finishing higher. Ausmus used a meticulous playing style that drew respect from those around him (even the big stacks like Merson and Sylvia to his left) and allowed him to keep his chip stack around 30 big blinds for most of the night. His run to the fifth place slot earned him an extra $1.4 million, something the Vegas pro will be able to use in his pursuits around Sin City and with a new baby in the house.
4th Place – Russell Thomas (predicted 4th)
Thomas put on an excellent show for those in the Rio on Monday night and his takedown of Salaburu pushed him further up the ladder that even he might have thought. His final hand was also a mistimed step of aggression, raising with A-9 and, after Balsiger moved all in, calling off the remainder of his chips. When facing a situation such as that, some might have laid the hand down; Thomas has to be applauded, however, for getting to this point of the tournament and having a realistic shot at winning the title.
3rd Place – Jacob Balsiger (predicted 8th)
This is one that I really missed on and in a pleasant way. Balsiger demonstrated some excellent skills on the felt as Monday played out. Once the three-handed play picked back up on Tuesday, Balsiger showed he wasn’t going away easy, battling to the lead against Merson and Sylvia before succumbing to them in third place after eleven hours of play. Balsiger will definitely be a player to watch in the future – although he may (should?) postpone his poker career until after he completes his studies at the University of Arizona!
2nd Place – Jesse Sylvia (predicted 2nd)
As pointed out on Sunday, Sylvia’s finish was probably the easiest to predict. No “November/Octo Nine” chip leader had finished lower than third upon the resumption of the event and Sylvia didn’t disappoint. He played masterfully throughout the two days of poker and gave Merson everything he could ask for (along with Balsiger) in a three handed match for the ages. Although he may be a bit disappointed with his runner-up finish, Sylvia did everything possible to win and would have been a worthy World Champion had he achieved that.
1st Place – Greg Merson (predicted 1st)
Merson’s path to success was a difficult one, but the road to the top isn’t supposed to be easy. He battled back from only three big blinds late in the tournament, worked his way to the third place stack at the start of the final table on Monday and arguably was hit with the deck during play that night. I don’t know how many times I saw Merson take pots down with Big Slick, Big Chick or some big Ace; when you’re getting cards like that, it can make the game seem rather easy.
This isn’t to belittle Merson’s talent on the table; he was able to mix up his play outstandingly throughout final table play and showed a ferocity that is necessary to win poker tournaments. While he considers himself more of a cash game professional, the tournament side of the equation may become a second home for our new World Champion.
Final Analysis
While I got Merson and Sylvia right, I completely fanned on Balsiger making his run to the final three (that’s a nice thing to miss). Koroknai’s burnout in sixth was a bit unexpected, with his experience and background, but understandable after butting heads with Merson and Sylvia. The others were either spot on (Thomas in fourth) or a couple of places off at the most (Esposito and Gee). Overall, the poker “crystal ball” came through this time…and it offers congratulations to all the combatants and especially the new World Champion, Greg Merson.
excellent review!