After over three months of waiting, it has all come down to this. The 2012 World Series of Poker Championship Event final table resumes tomorrow, with the “Octo-Nine” stepping to the felt to work their way down to the final three men that will determine poker’s next World Champion on Tuesday night.
For those of you who may have forgotten the combatants involved in tomorrow’s epic showdown, here’s a brief recap of the players by their seat assignments:
Seat 1: Russell Thomas, 24.8 million
Seat 2: Jacob Balsiger, 13.115 million
Seat 3: Jeremy Ausmus, 9.805 million
Seat 4: Steven Gee, 16.86 million
Seat 5: Greg Merson, 28.725 million
Seat 6: Jesse Sylvia, 43.875 million
Seat 7: Robert Salaburu, 15.155 million
Seat 8: Andras Koroknai, 29.375 million
Seat 9: Michael Esposito, 16.26 million
While all of the men involved in tomorrow’s final table are extremely worthy of taking down the tournament (and its $8.5 million payday), there is only one player who will emerge victorious. We will take a look at the players, in three segments, before eventually taking a shot at predicting what will happen when the champion is crowned come Tuesday night.
The Short Stacks
The three men whose work is the most difficult – Ausmus, Balsiger and Salaburu – have two options in trying to make their stacks relevant again in the tournament. They can either attempt to sit back and wait for just the right moment, with the right hand, and hopefully emerge on the other side of the board with a big double up to get back in the match. The other, and much more risky, option is to come out firing from the start and let the fates determine where they finish.
Of these three men, Ausmus is the one who has, in my opinion, the best chance to emerge from the trio to become a player in the event. Although he has the shortest stack, he arguably is experienced enough on the felt to be able to work that stack into something of a force. It also doesn’t hurt that he has three relatively short stacks in front of him in Esposito, Thomas and Balsiger.
Lurking In The Pack
The triumvirate that makes up those in the center of the nine man field – Esposito, Gee and Thomas – are the ones that can afford to wait a bit at the final table to see how things unfold. Esposito has a wealth of poker experience in his background, while both Gee and Thomas are relative newcomers to the felt. Unless he is a victim of a short stack attack early on, it is Esposito who has the skills to be able to climb the ladder from this group of players.
The Big Stacks
All three of these men – Merson, Koroknai and Sylvia – have a difficult choice to make in preparing their strategies for the Championship Event final table. They can wait and let the small stacks take each other out, or they can apply the pressure to force the short stacks to decisions for their tournament existence. Of the three of them, Merson and Sylvia look to have that “pressure” style of play while Koroknai may play the waiting game.
Sylvia has history on his side coming to the final table. Whoever has been the chip leader of the “November Nine” since the inception of the concept in 2008 has finished no worse than third in the tournament (Dennis Phillips was third in 2008, Darvin Moon second in 2009, Jonathan Duhamel wins in 2010, Martin Staszko second in 2011). With this in mind, it is easily conceivable to see Sylvia make the Tuesday night match.
Merson has been on one of the biggest runs of his career and winning the WSOP Championship Event would establish him as a true force in the game. Already the winner of a bracelet during the 2012 WSOP, Merson would need to win this event to pass Phil Hellmuth to take away the WSOP Player of the Year championship.
Koroknai is a dangerous player who does have the potential to emerge as the next World Champion. Already a winner on the World Poker Tour, Koroknai is a deceptive player who will be a formidable opponent for whoever he faces during play at the final table.
What Will Happen?
Ausmus will be on the attack early, looking to take chips from either Esposito or Thomas to get himself back in the game. Salaburu, unfortunately, will probably be the first casualty as he has both chip leader Sylvia and third place Merson on his immediate right. Balsiger will survive for a good period of time, but the blinds will eventually eat away his stack.
Gee will be the next one out after a blind fight against Merson, while Ausmus’ attempt at a Pius Heinz-type run last year will lead to his departure next. Esposito, who has stayed out of the fray for the most part, will be eliminated by Merson as well while Sylvia, who has treaded water to this point while losing the lead to Merson, will be able to take out Thomas to get his stack healthy again. This leaves the final three as Merson (holding a nice chip lead), Sylvia and an almost-unnoticeable Koroknai to battle on Tuesday for the title.
On Tuesday, expect a slugfest for the title of World Champion. Koroknai, who has planned all along to simply get to the three handed play through his actions on Monday, comes out on the attack but it isn’t enough to get him past third place. Heads up play will be an arduous battle as both Sylvia and Merson will exchange the lead several times before, early on Wednesday morning, Merson will finally get the best of Sylvia to win the 2012 WSOP Championship Event bracelet.
OK, if you’re keeping score, here’s how the predictions actually play out:
1. Greg Merson
2. Jesse Sylvia
3. Andras Koroknai
4. Russell Thomas
5. Michael Esposito
6. Jeremy Ausmus
7. Stephen Gee
8. Jacob Balsiger
9. Robert Salaburu
Admittedly, the crystal ball seemed to have some interruptions of connection at several points, so this may be completely off base. It still will be a fantastic battle over the next two days as the WSOP Championship Event looks to crown the World Champion for 2012.