Let’s pretend you’re a brand new poker player. Maybe you’re in Las Vegas for a buddy’s bachelor party, you’ve seen some poker on TV, and although you’re saving a little for the strip clubs, you’ve still got an extra $500 for “discretionary expenses” in your pocket. So, you sit down at the smallest game spread at the Venetian, fumble a big blind onto the felt, and play your very first hand of big-kid poker.
In this scenario, what would you say might be the very worst thing that could possibly happen to you? You get stacked? You get cheated? You get into a drunken brawl with a guy nicknamed “Fancy Fists”?
What if I told you the very worst thing that could possibly happen to you that night is that you win? And win big?
It seems counterintuitive, but there’s a very good reason why it might be dangerous for a budding poker player to have a wildly successful first session: the Primacy Effect. The Primacy Effect is a cognitive bias – a psychological tendency for us to draw incorrect conclusions based on the ways our brains are wired rather than on the objective evidence.
This particular bias is the tendency for the first items presented in a series to be remembered better or more easily, and for them to be more influential than those presented later in a series. For instance, if someone rattles off a long distance phone number, you’re most likely to remember the first few digits. Job applicants seen early in the hiring process are often given higher marks than those in the middle, and all applicants are best remembered by their “first impressions.”
Opening scenes are critical to the success or failure of a movie or book. And you probably have strong memories of and a special fondness for your first girlfriend or boyfriend. Thanks to the Primacy Effect, anything that comes first in a series serves as a powerful anchor in our memories, indelibly etched and coloring our perceptions of everything that comes after.
There’s even evidence now that the Primacy Effect has considerable power over the results on “American Idol”-style shows that rely on votes from the at-home audience. Over and over again, the contestants who appear first (and last, thanks to a different bias, the Recency Effect) get more votes than those appearing in the middle of the program.
Fans of these shows have occasionally voiced concern over potential voter fraud or judging biases, but if research on the Primacy Effect is correct, then results could actually be rigged in an even more diabolical way. All the producers would have to do to make sure their favorites are well-received by the voting audience is put them first or last in the evening’s lineup.
And isn’t a poker career just a long series of individual sessions? If we have this tendency to be overly influenced by the first item in a series, isn’t it possible that our entire perception of the game of poker could be distorted by what happens in the first few sessions?
The first time you played poker, you sucked. We all did. But thanks to the element of chance built into the game, there’s a very real possibility that you won in spite of your suckitude. And if you won big, the Primacy Effect will make sure that you remember that session and let it influence your perception of the game for a long time to come.
You’re likely to believe that the game is easier than it really is, and that it requires less work than it really does, and that you’re naturally more talented than you really are. The Primacy Effect will cause you to weigh the results of that first session more heavily than subsequent sessions, so even if you go on a long losing streak, you’ll constantly be comparing your results with that first success.
“How can I lose ten sessions in a row if I destroyed the game the first time I played? I’m a great player with natural talent. I must just be getting unlucky!” And you may find it more difficult to accept the brutal realities of poker: the game is hard and to master it, you must put in a lot of time and effort. What a glorious world it would be for the professional player if everyone won big the first time they played! The experience would likely stunt the growth of their abilities and yet get them hooked on the game itself – a recipe for long-term donations.
What about the players who lose their shirts the first time they play? They’re probably more likely to believe the game is more difficult than it really is – perhaps even unbeatable. For many people, a big initial losing session is enough to make them quit forever. But ironically, these players might be better situated for long-term success since they’ll likely have a better grasp of the amount of work necessary to master the game’s strategies.
There’s another way that the Primacy Effect skews our thinking on a daily basis. After all, isn’t each individual session a series of hands? So, by the same token, the results of your first big pot might influence your perception of the entire evening. Personally, I have an irrational tendency to get into a very negative and self-destructive mindset if I lose a big pot early in a session.
And how often have you heard players say, “I can tell it’s going to be a great night” after raking a massive pot soon after sitting down? Even though each hand is an independent, random event, psychologically speaking, we’re susceptible to letting our first impressions affect us long after the first hand has hit the muck.
Whether you won or lost in your rookie season, be aware that your perception of the game has likely been distorted by your initial experiences on the felt.
John “JimmyLegs” Wray is an instructor at CardRunners, one of the world’s leading poker training sites. Receive CardRunners for free through Truly Free Poker Training. Earn 5,500 points in a month playing on Full Tilt Poker and you’ll receive a free month of CardRunners. Earn a free week for only 1,375 points. No points are deducted and there is no impact on rake. Sign up now.
