The public kept pumping up the favorite
When there is no apparent reason for bettors to flood sportsbooks with wagers on one side of an event, there is often reason to raise an eyebrow. This is exactly what is happening with Saturday night’s UFC between Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, as it is under investigation for possible match-fixing.
The day of the fight, Nuerdanbieke’s odds moved sharply. He was already the favorite, but money came pouring in on him, swiftly moving the line from -220 to -420 in the four hours prior to the bout. -220 isn’t a great price, even on a favorite. -420 is terrible. Bettors were apparently so confident that Nuerdanbieke was going to win that they were willing to risk a lot to win a little.
On top of that, bettors kept throwing money at the prop bets that Nuerdanbieke would win by knockout in the first round and that he would win in less than 2.5 rounds. At that point, some sportsbooks took the fight off their boards, possibly suspecting something was up.
There were rumors on Saturday morning than Minner was injured, which may have influenced the line. Sure enough, half a minute into the fight, he recoiled after throwing a kick, apparently hurt. From there, he ended up getting knocked to the canvas and repeatedly pummeled until the ref stopped the fight at the 1:07 mark, awarding Nuerdanbieke the TKO.
Watchdog notified regulators
As the suspicious bets made the sportsbooks wary, they got in touch with U.S. Integrity, a sports betting market monitoring company that works with regulators. U.S. Integrity contacted gaming regulators and other sportsbooks, alerting them to the increased betting activity, even as the odds on Nuerdanbieke became less and less favorable to bettors.
“Our goal as always is to notify the industry of any potential nefarious, abnormal or suspicious activity as soon as possible, so they can take action as quickly as possible,” U.S. Integrity president Matthew Holt told ESPN. “In this case, we hope that by sending a couple hours before the fight started, we may have helped prevent some more suspicious bets from getting through.”
Letting the appropriate parties know what was going on is the only thing U.S. Integrity can do. It is up to regulators, sportsbooks, and sports organizations to take action as they see fit.
“Our betting integrity partner, Don Best Sports, a leading global supplier of real-time betting data for North American sporting events, will conduct a thorough review of the facts and report its findings,” said the UFC in a public statement. “At this time, we have no reason to believe either of the athletes involved in the bout, or anyone associated with their teams, behaved in an unethical or irresponsible manner.”
ESPN is reporting that sportsbook and bettor opinions on the matter are mixed. Some believe the bout was fixed and that Minner took a dive. Others believe that Minner was injured going into the fight, the information leaked, and bettors took advantage of it. One of ESPN’s sources “familiar with Minner’s camp” said he was “absolutely injured going into the fight.”