Now that the confetti has been swept up, people have nursed their respective conditions back to normalcy and everyone has now bid adieu to 2014, the New Year celebrations are complete. Thus, it is time to turn to 2015 and wonder what the coming twelve months are going to look like. Never one to back down from a challenge (and we’ll revisit this on occasion), here are my predictions for what we can look forward to 2015.
#1 – Two States Will Legalize Online Poker/Gambling
This one is bound to happen in 2015. California will finally step up, settle the quarrels between the warring factions in the state (the card rooms, Indian tribes and horse racing tracks) and pass online poker legislation this year. The reason? There’s just too much money laying out there for the California General Assembly to overlook; besides the factor that they would have a player pool of potentially 10 million people (out of their 39 million population), the revenues from initial licensees and the players will bolster the Golden State’s revenues. Unfortunately, though, I do see that Amaya Gaming and PokerStars will be initially left out of the California equation (the specter of the “old” PokerStars coming back to haunt them).
But who will be the second state? There are two candidates that I see for this one. New York and Pennsylvania have both dallied with online poker legislation and, with their population bases, could easily have stand-alone state networks that would be profitable. It’s not going to happen quickly, though. Expect the passage of any legislation in New York or Pennsylvania to occur in the second half of the year and be online by New Year’s Day in 2016.
#2 – Nevada Opens for Full Online Casino Gaming, Compacts with New Jersey, Delaware
Although they would love to stay with an online poker only system, legislators in Nevada are going to realize that, for their system to work, they are going to have to open up for full online casino gaming. The different casino industry giants in the state aren’t going to like it either but, with revenues barely breaking $1 million a month (and sometimes not even that) for their online poker sites, something has to be added to jump start their operations.
In bringing full online casino gaming together, Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware will also form a compact that will provide them with stability and a larger player pool. Especially if, as our previous prediction states, California and either New York or Pennsylvania enter the game, they are going to have to get some serious action going to provide a return on investment for their operators. This also will be a year-long action, with the move by Nevada and the resulting compact between the states not occurring until at least this summer.
#3 – There WILL Be Another Two-Time Champion This Year on the EPT
It took almost 100 tournaments for Victoria Coren-Mitchell to become the first two-time champion on the European Poker Tour. It will not take that long for the second to be crowned and it will even be in the coming 12 months.
Now with over 100 champions in its illustrious history, the EPT normally has at least one former champion in contention come the final table if not two on some occassions. Given the right circumstances (remember, Coren-Mitchell was the short stack when she won the EPT San Remo last year), it could come as soon as this year’s Grand Final or during their upcoming season. Also, when you look at the players who have won an EPT Main Event – Bertrand ‘ElkY’ Grospellier, Mike McDonald, Jason Mercier, Jake Cody, Kevin MacPhee and Liv Boeree, just to name a few – it is highly likely that one of the previous EPT champions comes back and takes their second win.
#4 – The WSOP Championship Event Will Draw Over 7000 Players
Over the past four years, the World Series of Poker Championship Event has threatened to reach that 7000 player threshold on only one occasion. In 2010, 7319 players came to the tables at the Rio to contest for the title, a number not reached since 2006 when 8773 runners came to the line. In 2015, the WSOP Championship Event will once again bump over the 7K number because of the changes instituted by WSOP officials.
While most believe the $10 million guaranteed for the first place finisher is not good for the game of poker, it is the largest individual prize given out for a single performer in any sporting event (unless your name is Floyd Mayweather and you’re negotiating outrageous deals for your boxing matches). This should draw in another 317 players at least (last year’s field was 6683) to push the total to 7000.
#5 – The Global Poker Index Will Become THE Standard-Bearer for Poker
Throughout 2014, the Global Poker Index positioned itself to become a major force on not only the live poker world but also the online community. Through the acquisition of many different pieces and the introduction of several new commodities, the GPI will become the standard bearer for the poker world in 2015.
The reason for this is the continued creativity and innovation of the GPI’s Chief Executive Officer Alexandre Dreyfus. Dreyfus always seems to have something to add to the poker community and, for the most part, it helps to make it better. The creation of the American Poker Awards (to be handed out in conjunction with the European Poker Awards, another GPI acquisition, in 2015) and the Global Poker Masters (basically the “World Cup of Poker” that will be held in March) will add another layer of success to the GPI and Dreyfus.
It is only a matter of time before Dreyfus comes up with his next brainstorm that will continue to “sportify” poker (a phrase that Dreyfus coined). With that, the GPI should become the “go-to” organization to look towards for leadership in the poker world, be it rules, groundbreaking innovations or even perhaps legislative efforts.
The next 12 months will determine if these predictions come true. What is your prediction that will come true for poker over the next year?
